From the Editors

Since 2022, the journal Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya is publishing special issues on important topics in geography. The comprehensive special section offered to readers' attention is another innovation of the journal. This collection has been prepared for the centennial of the International Geographical Union and its congress in Paris (July 2022). It includes seven review articles. Their English translations are simultaneously published in the journal Regional Research of Russia, no. 1 for 2022. These circumstances determine articles' genre and fundamental features. The topics of the articles were chosen so that the special section reflects areas in which the most striking results have been achieved and which are specific to Russia. The authors are leading Russian experts in their respective fields. They have tried, as far as possible, to compare the topics, methodological approaches, and research results with the world mainstream. The main focus is on the last decade, 2010–2021;when necessary, the authors also have referred to earlier publications. The authors of most of the articles pay attention to the peculiarities of spatial development that arose in 2020–2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya. All rights reserved.

INTERNET DIFFUSION AND INTERREGIONAL DIGITAL DIVIDE IN RUSSIA: TRENDS, FACTORS, AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE PANDEMIC

The demand for digital technologies has been growing due to a shift in the technological and economic paradigm. The need for online services has increased since the beginning of the COVID pandemic. There are significant disparities between Russian regions in the digital technology accessibility and the development of computer skills. In 2020, the Internet diffused rapidly in most regions, although previously, there had been a slowdown. As markets got saturated with digital services, the digital divide between Russian regions narrowed. Overall, the Internet use patterns are consistent with those of the spatial diffusion of innovations. Amongst the leaders, there are regions home to the largest agglomerations and northern territories of Russia, whereas those having a high proportion of rural population lag behind. Coastal and border regions (St. Petersburg, the Kaliningrad region, Karelia, Primorsky Krai, etc.) have better access to the Internet due to their proximity to the centres of technological innovations as well as the high intensity of external relations. Leading regions have an impact on their neighbours through spatial diffusion. Econometrically, access to the Internet depends on income, the average age and level of education, and its use depends on the business climate and Internet accessibility factors. Regional markets are gradually getting more saturated with digital services and technologies. The difference between regions in terms of access to the Internet is twofold, whereas, in terms of digital technology use, the gap is manifold. In many regions, the share of online commerce, which became the driver of economic development during the lockdown, is minimal. Based on the results of the study, several recommendations have been formulated © Zemtsov, S. P., Demidova, K. V., Kichaev, D. Yu., 2022

how has thE coViD-19 PanDEmic accElERatED E-commERcE in Russia: EViDEncE fRom fiRm-lEVEl Data with sPatial factoRs1

The retail and wholesale sector has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, leading to a major sector transformation. In this study, we analyse the factors of firm-level e-commerce adoption and expansion in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and pay special attention to the regional level determinants of e-commerce. We use the data provided by the EBRD-EIB-WB Enterprise Survey that includes about 18,000 observations for firms in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Central Asia (CA) and approximately 1000 observations in Russia. We use the probit and weighted probit estimation techniques. Our central hypothesis states that while large cities are usually seen as drivers of the expansion of e-commerce, lagging regions are catching up with the leading regions in the adoption of e-commerce. The study shows that firms in regions with lower levels of e-commerce before COVID-19 and firms in large cities were more likely to adopt e-commerce during the pandemic, which evidences a convergence in e-commerce between Russian regions. In contrast to the firms in CEE and CA countries, export market orientation and supply chain signals do not foster e-commerce adoption in Russia. This can be explained by weak development of subcontracting networks and low participation of small and medium-sized firms in cooperative relationships in Russia. Regarding policy implications, we argue that policy measures should focus on the distribution of low-cost solutions aiming to decrease entry barriers, liberalise domestic markets for entrance of foreign platforms in Russia, and support the development of domestic platforms. © Fedyunina A. A., Gorodnyi N. A., Simachev Yu. V., Drapkin I. M. Text. 2022.

Revenues of Russian Subfederal Budgets under the Pandemic: A Spatial Reversal

The object of research is subfederal budget revenues in Russia, i.e., the revenues going into the consolidated budgets of the federal subjects. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the subfederal budget revenues and to assess the contributions of various sources (taxes, non-tax revenues, transfers and their components) to their change. The data on moving annual revenues and their components with a 1-month shift are used to construct linear time regressions for 85 federal subjects of the Russian Federation and the city of Baikonur from 2015 to March 2020. The regressions are applied to forecast "non-pandemic” subfederal budget revenues during the period of the pandemic (April 2020 to June 2021). By decomposing the deviations of the actual revenues from the forecast ones, the contribution of various sources to the changes in the subfederal budget revenues amid COVID-19 is determined. It is shown that the oil-producing regions of Russia are most vulnerable to the pandemic. Meanwhile, an abnormally high growth in budget revenues is observed in some regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. Tax revenues have the strongest negative impact on the change in the subfederal budget revenues, with the greatest losses being attributed to profit tax and smaller losses being associated with corporate property tax and special tax regimes. Personal income tax partially compensates for these losses. The changes in the taxes on goods and services are extremely uneven. The behavior of non-tax budget revenues resembles that of taxes, with the greatest losses being attributed to proceeds from the use of state properties and from the sale of assets. Interbudgetary transfers compensate for both the shortfall in revenues and for the growing subfederal budget expenditures. Their distribution reveals three motives: mitigation of the pandemic's detrimental implications, control over interregional imbalances, and political preferences. The federal subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District and some other lagging regions of Russia receive the largest share of extra transfers. The composition of the transfers shows a substantial increase in the share of subsidies and of the so-called other interbudgetary transfers, which suggest a proactive participation of the state in the implementation of national projects and in the production of public goods. A decrease in the share of equalization grants implies a reduction in non-targeted aid allocated by uniform rules. This indicates the increased dirigisme function of the Russian state in the economy. The results we obtained can be applied both to control the budget revenues of regions and to regulate interbudgetary relations during crises.

Entrepreneurship Policy and SME Development during Pandemic Crisis in Russia

: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) suffered from government restrictions and a drop in consumer demand in 2020–2021 and therefore became one of the main targets of anti-crisis support worldwide. We aimed to identify trends and factors influencing the SMEs' dynamics in the Russian regions during the coronacrisis, including the impact of entrepreneurship policy. We have verified with the econometric analysis that the SMEs' number reduction was more serious in regions with a large SME sector, with a high proportion of industries potentially affected by the crisis, with stricter anti-pandemic measures. The latter factor had an impact not only on the domestic market, but also on SMEs in neighboring regions, which proves the existence of close ties between enterprises of different regions. However, there are some factors that influenced the SMEs development positively: relatively higher income level, more favourable business climate and larger consumer market. The previously undertaken efforts of the regional authorities to improve the business climate had a positive effect on the SMEs survival during the crisis. Business digitalization turned out to be an effective way to adapt (online services and sales), and state support policies could be more efficient (targeted and accessible) in digitally advanced regions. The agrarian regions due to continued demand for food got through the crisis more easily, while the border regions, focused on foreign trade relations, suffered more. In general, the business performance reduction was smaller in the regions that significantly intensified support. In a group of proactive regions (Tyumen, Belgorod, Ulyanovsk oblast, Crimea,1 etc.), where both general and specific support were increased above the national average, SMEs decrease rate was 1.6% lower. According to our calculations, during crises special attention should be paid to supporting business digitalization, improving regional business climate and increasing the accessibility of markets for SMEs (transport development, import substitution, etc.). These measures can become a significant factor in business development after the events of 2022. © 2022, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

THE MEDIA SPHERE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: REGIONAL AND DISCURSIVE DIFFERENCES IN AGENDA-SETTING

In conditions of forced self-isolation, media communication has a crucial role. According to agenda-setting theory, out of a variety of surrounding topics, media choose the most significant and discussed for their audience. The choice is often based on political, economic and other motives. This raises the question of the correlation between the real threat and its representation in different media. The study focuses on the Russian media content from January 22 to July 19, 2020. We analyze the dynamics of news about COVID-19 daily and their content in various media in parallel with the dynamics of newly detected cases in Russian regions, Moscow, Russia in general, and the world. We focus on regions where the pandemic was not weakening by the middle of summer. The study compares national and regional media, mass media in regions, state, and non-state media. We assumed the coincidence of the news amount with the rise of newly infected people in the region. However, this hypothesis was confirmed only in Moscow and cities with a similar epidemiological scenario. Both national and regional media focus on Moscow’s epidemiological situation. Before May 6, the focus was on world events. The growth of new cases in regions was accompanied by a decrease in attention to this problem in the media. Initial strong interest in epidemic was associated with the risk uncertainty and the introduction of restrictive policy;the real epidemic in regions does not affect the coverage of this aspect in the media. There are also some differences between media in megacities and smaller cities. State and non-state media are identical in the dynamics of COVID-19 news. We detected a gradual substitution of pandemics agenda as well as differences between state and non-state media. The state media tried to calm down the audience regardless of how serious the restrictive measures were, while non-state media criticized the health care system, inconsistency of restrictive measures, and described patients’ experiences. © 2022 Russian Public Opinion Research Center, VCIOM. All rights reserved.

Excess Pandemic Mortality in Russia’s Regions in 2020

Counterfactual estimates of excess deaths in Russian regions in 2020 are compared with actual deaths to measure the initial COVID impact. COVID is a real threat to high labor productivity regions and those with relatively bigger defense sectors. Corruption is surprisingly found to lower excess deaths. Legacy Soviet human capital and early Putin era democracy don’t appear to impact excess deaths. Urban males are most threatened with an even greater negative impact on the economy as COVID moves into working age brackets in the medium term. Living in rural areas and/or in regions far from Moscow was relatively safer in 2020. © 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

SPATIAL MODELLING OF KEY REGIONAL-LEVEL FACTORS OF COVID-19 MORTALITY IN RUSSIA

Intensive socio-economic interactions are a prerequisite for the innovative development of the economy, but at the same time, they may lead to increased epidemiological risks. Persistent migration patterns, the socio-demographic composition of the population, income level, and employment structure by type of economic activity determine the intensity of socio-economic interactions and, therefore, the spread of COVID-19. We used the excess mortality (mortality from April 2020 to February 2021 compared to the five-year mean) as an indicator of deaths caused directly and indirectly by COVID-19. Similar to some other countries, due to irregularities and discrepancies in the reported infection rates, excess mortality is currently the only available and reliable indicator of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia. We used the regional level data and fit regression models to identify the socio-economic factors that determined the impact of the pandemic. We used ordinary least squares as a baseline model and a selection of spatial models to account for spatial autocorrelation of dependent and independent variables as well as the error terms. Based on the comparison of AICc (corrected Akaike information criterion) and standard error values, it was found that SEM (spatial error model) is the best option with reliably significant coefficients. Our results show that the most critical factors that increase the excess mortality are the share of the elderly population and the employment structure represented by the share of employees in manufacturing (C economic activity according to European Skills, Competences, and Occupations (ESCO) v1 classification). High humidity as a proxy for temperature and a high number of retail locations per capita reduce the excess mortality. Except for the share of the elderly, most identified factors influence the opportunities and necessities of human interaction and the associated excess mortality. © 2022, Russian Geographical Society. All rights reserved.

From the Editors

: Since 2022, the journal Regional Research of Russia is publishing special issues on important topics in human geography, regional economics, and sociology. This special issue has been prepared for the centennial of the International Geographical Union celebrated at its Extraordinary Congress in Paris (July 2022) and includes seven review articles, commissioned and written by leading Russian experts in the respective fields. The topics of the articles were chosen so that the special issue reflects areas in which the most striking results have been achieved and which are specific to Russia. The authors have tried, as far as possible, to compare the topics, methodological approaches, and research results with the world mainstream. The main focus is on the last decade, 2010–2021;when necessary, the authors also have referred to earlier publications. The authors of most of the articles paid attention to the developments that arose in 2020–2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

The Fiscal Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Subnational Governments: The Case of Russia

This paper examines the fiscal consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for subnational governments. In particular, we study how the pandemic affected the Russian regions in terms of budget revenues, expenditures, and federal transfers. We use a novel dataset and compare various monthly fiscal measures in 2020 prior to and during the pandemic to the corresponding measures in 2019, conditioning on regional actions in response to the pandemic, the health impact of the pandemic, and the potentially relevant regional characteristics. We document that small business tax collections declined the most in response to the pandemic-related restrictions, while unconditional discretionary transfers and health care expenditures rose the most. Also, we find that tax collections are positively associated with population mobility, controlling for the restrictions, suggesting that tax revenues were inversely affected by the degree of compliance with the restrictions. Finally, we outline some policy implications for the design of fiscal federalism and directions for future research.

Transformation of the Tertiary Sphere of Russia’s Regions Economy in the Post-Soviet Period

The downward trend in the role of the primary and secondary sectors of the Russian economy has become especially noticeable in the post-Soviet period during the transition to market relations. When analyzing the accelerated development of the tertiary sector, the main emphasis is usually placed on its objective nature and compliance with global trends. However, despite the common model of transformation of the structure of the economy with European countries, the results achieved both quantitatively and qualitatively differ from the level of more developed countries. These differences are even more pronounced at the regional level. In the article, the results of the tertiary sector development in Russia in the post-Soviet period are presented in comparison with other European countries and by the federal subjects. The research information base includes Eurostat and World Bank databases for cross-country comparisons, Rosstat materials for the typology of Russian regions, and quarterly data on tax contributions from the Federal Tax Service for the analysis of the stability of the tertiary sector sub-sectors in the context of the coronavirus crisis. Russia’s lagging in terms of the share of the tertiary sector in the economy, which was rapidly decreasing in the first decade and a half of the post-Soviet period, has stabilized in recent years. The lagging behind developed European countries is determined by the weighted structure of the economy, combined with unfavorable institutional conditions for the development of B2B services, lowered consumption standards of the population, including those associated with its relatively low incomes, the sparseness of the settlement system, and tardy entry into the period of tertiarization. At the regional level, the quantitative and qualitative tertiary sector growth is characteristic of a stable group of fifteen of the most advanced federal subjects. In most of the rest regions, it is rather derivative on the background of a recession in other sectors of the economy. The resilience of the tertiary sector during the coronavirus crisis has been determined by the ratio of more inertial non-market and vulnerable market subsectors. The group with the largest relative losses includes both strong regions with moderate diversification of the tertiary sector and an increased share of B2B services and the weakest regions, where market branches are mainly represented by retail trade. © 2021 Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Geograficheskaya.

The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Russian Regions in 2020: Models and Reality

Considering the widespread of Covid-19 and its impact on the population health in Russian regions, it is necessary to examine the impact of the pandemic (as excess mortality) on the regional socio-economic development in 2020. Based on a quantitative and qualitative model, the study explains the process of coronavirus diffusion at the regional level, using information from foreign publications, Russian regional statistics and a database of legal documents «Consultant +». The concept of spatial diffusion, developed in the 1950s-1980s, was chosen as the research methodology. The study methods include a cartographic analysis of the monthly dynamics of coronavirus spread in Russian regions and regression analysis of regional differences in excess mortality regarding the most significant explanatory variables. The developed regression model explains the spread of Covid-19 across Russian regions in 2020, while the proposed qualitative model «network-place-scaling» describes the spatial diffusion of the virus. The conducted analysis confirmed the relationship between the spread of the virus and economic specialisation of regions. Simultaneously, such widely discussed factors as physical density, urbanisation level and per capita income did not show significant correlation with excess mortality. The study revealed the following results. There is a significant discrepancy between the actual situation in Russian regions and expected developments according to the simplified centre-periphery model. The important regression variables, explaining the interregional differences in excess mortality in 2020, include the share of employed in contact-intensive wholesale and retail trade and manufacturing (large production teams);proportion of the population over 65;the number of retail facilities per 1000 people. The qualitative model «network-place-scaling» was deemed suitable for explaining the mechanisms of the spread of coronavirus in Russian regions. Future studies should focus on examining the mechanisms and socio-economic consequences of the pandemic at the municipal level of large cities and urban agglomerations in Russia.

Spread of the COVID-19 In Russia: Regional Peculiarities

—: The spread of COVID-19 is highly differentiated both between countries and between territories within countries. The main aim of this article is to identify the characteristics of regions that affect the scale of spread of coronavirus infection in the Russian Federation during the second wave of the pandemic. Using econometric modeling methods, the dependences between a number of regional characteristics reflecting the vulnerability of regions and their ability to resist infection were assessed, in addition to the scale of the spread of coronavirus infection. The wealth of a region and social capital of its population became the factors of resistance. The populations of wealthier Russian regions are less exposed to infection, while the most vulnerable are poorer regions, regions with a high population density, poorer environmental quality, and older populations. The article demonstrates the role of social capital in resisting a pandemic: higher quality social capital is associated with lower infection and mortality rates. The findings can be used to inform regional policy measures to potentially reduce COVID-19 and other infections. © 2021, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.